Trades & Free Agency

Teams With the Clearest Paths to Signing J.T. Realmuto

Now that James McCann has signed a four-year deal with the New York Mets, Realmuto is now a lock to sign at least a five year deal somewhere with a total contract value north of $100 million. The Mets were one of the favorites landing spots for Realmuto across the baseball industry. Now that the Mets are off the table, let's evaluate other suitors that fit JT's desires and the team's own possible thought process behind fitting and signing Realmuto. JT has made it clear in his days with the Marlins that he wants to win, and there are still suitors aside from the Mets that are well positioned to do so in the next 3-5 years. Without further ado, let's begin.

1. Phillies

At the beginning of the offseason, I was about 95% sure JT wouldn't be leaving Philadelphia, mainly because of Bryce's vocalized and publicized desires coupled with the massive hole the Phillies have at catcher within the organization. Don't get me wrong, I like Rafael Marchan and Logan O'Hoppe, but are they going to be able to replace Realmuto and handle the bulk of the catching load in the next couple of seasons? I don't believe so. Realmuto's path back to Philly became a lot less clear when news circulated that the Phillies lost a tremendous amount of money and would not be able to retain him. Even if the Phillies re-sign Realmuto to a contract with an AAV near $20 million, the team still has several holes and uncertainties: a Didi Gregorius replacement, a Kingery rebound, a washed-up McCutchen, a weak bottom-half of the rotation, and an extremely inexperienced and shallow bullpen beyond Hector Neris. So, it makes sense to me that if money is tight in Philly, it'd behoove them to allocate the available money around to fill the holes to create a competitive and deeper team (my preference) as opposed to a top-heavy group of Harper, Realmuto, Hoskins, Bohm, Nola, and Wheeler. But now, Phillies executives say they can afford Realmuto while denying reports that Wheeler needed to be traded to make room on the payroll. I believe owner John Middleton said he wouldn't trade Wheeler for Babe Ruth, which hyperbole, sure, but utterly ridiculous. So all in all, we don't know for sure where the Phillies stand financially, but regardless, investing heavily in Realmuto may leave the team with large holes on the roster, thus affecting the ability to compete at the top of the NL East.

2. Marlins

Oh look who it is! Yup, I've identified the Marlins as one of the cleanest fits in all the MLB for Realmuto. This team is up-and-coming, and I honestly believe the future in Miami. However, the internal catching situation is not as bright. Jorge Alfaro, a piece in the return for Realmuto when Miami traded him to Philly, has been okay in his career thus far. The on-base skills are subpar, he has some power, and a cannon for an arm. Alfaro struggled in 2020 after a long stint on the COVID injured list. Beyond Alfaro, the organization just has collection of guys like Brian Navarreto, Nick Fortes, Will Banfield, and Chad Wallach, all of whom project to be nothing greater than backup catchers at this point in time based off of scouting reports and overall minor league performance. The biggest point of interest for a potential Realmuto-Marlins reunion is the Marlins payroll situation. They currently sit around $57M, but Corey Dickerson's $9.5M and Starling Marte's $12.5M will come off the books next season, so there will be money to play with in the 2021-22 offseason in South Beach. As far as the offensive hitting core that will surround Realmuto, I'm not super high on these athlete-first, high K-rate prospects the Marlins have acquired in trades. I'm talking about Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Jazz Chisholm, Monte Harrison, and Griffin Conine. I am more optimistic about Peyton Burdick, JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Jose Devers, and Jesus Sanchez at this point. The most attractive part of the Marlins organization right now is the pitching talent. The top three guys right now in Alcantara, Lopez, and Sanchez is a formidable group, and there will be good competition for those last two spots between Rogers, Garrett, Castano, Neidert, Meyer, Cabrera, and Yamamoto. The question here is if JT is willing to go back to Miami. He wanted out pretty bad, but it seems the club is in a much better position now than when he left.

3. Cardinals

The Cards currently have a Yadier Molina-sized hole at catcher, and negotiations with haven't amounted to what seemed like an inevitable Yadier reunion. But I think it's possible the squad looks for a longer-term upgrade. I've read things here and there that the Cardinals are very payroll-conscious heading into the 2021 season. I think the contracts of Matt Carpenter ($18.5M), Dexter Fowler ($16.5M), Andrew Miller ($12M), and Carlos Martinez ($11.5) are a huge net negative in terms of performance output based off the 2020 season, and projections going forward mostly due to aging. After the 2021 season though, all that money is coming off the books, making room for a big signing or two. If Ivan Herrera turns out to be the real deal, it seems like a cleaner fit for Yadier to finish out his career in St. Louis, gradually yielding more time to Andrew Knizner, another guy I like, but ultimately acting as a stopgap to Ivan Herrera, who would've started at A-Advanced Palm Beach if the season wasn't cancelled. The Cardinals need to pad the offense around Goldschmidt, who was really the Cardinals only above average bat in the lineup in 2020. The Cards are also a favorite of mine to land Arenado in a trade, or sign him if he exercises his opt-out clause next offseason. In sum, the Cardinals is an organization that competes for playoffs spots seemingly every single year, and I gotta believe that this is the type of organization Realmuto is looking for.

4. Rays

The first reaction to this is that Rays never sign anyone to big contracts, this will never happen! Maybe so, but the Rays are in a position to win now and into the near future more so than any team in the big leagues based on young, controllable, relatively cheap talent alone. Guys like Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan, Brendan McKay, Joe Ryan haven't even got going yet, and add this to the already extremely talented core of [Brandon] Lowe, Adames, Arozarena, Meadows, Snell, Glasnow, Anderson. The Rays will be cooking. The payroll currently sits around $67M, and the Opening Day payroll has never eclipsed $77M, so this is the point where you say a Realmuto signing is impossible. Well, I think it's very possible that with the shortage of center fielders in the market (really only Springer & JBJ) Kiermaier's services become more desirable. He is making ~$11.67M in 2021 and $1M more than that in 2022, so to the Rays' standards this is a very expensive contract for someone that is going to be on the wrong side of 30, where speed declines, along with defense, which both happen to be Kiermaier's strongest assets. I don't think they'll have to attach prospects for a team to take on the remainder of the contract, but rather gain prospects in a hypothetical trade. Tsutsugo's one-year, $7M deal may require a prospect to be able to dump onto another team. But between these two, who are totally capable of being replaced internally, the Rays can create nearly $19M in payroll space, which is enough to be able to squeeze a Realmuto contract in there. Despite the Rays being one of the organizationally deepest teams in baseball, the catching line is subpar in my eyes, where Ronaldo Hernandez is the only guy with starter upside. But even he had a down year offensively in 2019 at A+ Charlotte, so I take it with a grain of salt that he is the heir to the starting catching position in Tampa Bay.

5. Indians

Financially, this is a situation similar to the Rays in that payroll space is the driving factor behind a potential Realmuto signing. The payroll currently sits at around $65M and they are still definitely going to trade Francisco Lindor and his $20M+ which would bring them down to $45M (if the return is prospects and/or pre-arb eligible players). I also am an advocate for a Carlos Carrasco trade. I think the Indians can score big here without hurting the pitching staff too bad because there is a steep drop-off after Trevor Bauer in the starting pitching market, which has proven to be more expensive than I thought. And considering Carrasco is only making $12M each of the next two seasons (and $14M if 2023 option vests), I believe a Carrasco return can help fill the holes in the offense. Internally, I like Scott Moss, Eli Morgan, and Logan Allen as potential replacements for Carrasco. The offense is not looking good, especially after a Lindor trade. That leaves only Jose Ramirez as the only high-end consistent bat in the lineup. But, if Cleveland trades Lindor and Carrasco, the payroll would be around $33M, which leaves PLENTY of room for JT Realmuto, a couple of stopgaps in the infield for Nolan Jones & Tyler Freeman, and possibly a new outfield since I believe that Cleveland's current options are really just a collection of fourth outfielders. The Indians currently have Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges as the primary catcher and backup catcher, respectively. I generally like a tandem with a bat-first catcher, then a glove-first catcher, but in this situation, the Indians have two glove-first catchers, so one would have to be traded. Pipeline-wise, only Bo Naylor stands out to me right now as a potential starting catcher, but even so, he is still a couple of years away at least, and that's if he hits at the upper levels of the minors. Realmuto would be in command of a young, talented pitching staff in Bieber, Plesac, McKenzie, and Civale.

Honorable Mentions

6. Blue Jays

I really like the Alejandro Kirk-Danny Jansen tandem. I'm also keeping my eye on Riley Adams. I think Toronto would be better suited allocating their money towards elite pitching (starters & relievers) and an elite infield or outfield bat.

7. Astros

They will have a ton of money come off the books next year between Greinke and Verlander. I think they'll turn to cheaper options after using the money to sign outfielders and to extend Carlos Correa.

8. Nationals

The Nats have too many holes (1B, 3B, RF, DH, SP4/5, and a few RP) to spend big on a catcher.

9. Tigers

Not ready to win yet, I'm not high on Jake Rogers, so they'll sign a catcher when it's time to start making playoff pushes.

10. Rangers

Also not ready to win yet, and they have Sam Huff.

Breaking Down the Best Fits for George Springer

George Springer is easily a top 5 player within the 2020-21 Free Agent Pool. He is a quick-twitch table-setter who would profile best in right field as he enters his age 31 season in 2021. He boasts a career 134 wRC+ and a clutch 141 wRC+ in the postseason. He plays a sound center field, but if I'm the team signing his paycheck for the next 3+ seasons, and considering his injury history, I'd want to move him to a corner position. Springer would be a great fit on a bunch of teams not listed below, but these five teams work best for Springer and their own financially-driven priorities. So without further ado, let's dive in.

Estimated Contract Size

Prediction: 4 years + Vesting/Club Option - $100 - $110 million guaranteed

Top 5 Best Fits (Using MLB Radar)

Houston Astros: For me, this is the most likely landing spot for George Springer. It appears the Astros will have two gaping holes in the outfield for 2021: center field and the corner outfield position not occupied by Kyle Tucker, so in a Springer resigning, Tucker would play left while Springer holds down right field. The immediate assumption is that the Astros won't be able to afford Springer given their commitments to Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander, but the latter two of the group will see their expensive contracts expire after the 2021 season. I have the Astros payroll currently estimated at $165,736,428, so I believe they can squeeze a front-loaded Springer contract there, while also signing or trading for a center fielder. And I say front-loaded because the Astros will have Bregman at a $13M salary in 2021 and 2022 before it shoots up to $30.5M in 2023 and 2024. I would say if the Astros didn't have that plethora of young arms (Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor) perform the way they did in 2020, then I would say the Astros should allocate their existing funds towards pitching, but with those players' being in pre-arbitration eligible in 2021, the Astros can allocate funds towards re-signing a franchise player and fan favorite in Springer.

Chicago White Sox: Springer signing with the White Sox could create one of the most lethal lineups in the MLB for 2021 and beyond. Springer would slide into right field next to Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez, while Adam Engel gets pushed to a fourth outfielder role off the bench. The greatest challenge here is the cost, especially as the White Sox' talented young players likely to see salary bumps via long-term contract raises and arbitration. Currently, I have the White Sox payroll at $131,545,000, BUT that is including the salaries/salary estimates for Edwin Encarnacion, Nomar Mazara, Carlos Rodon, and Gio Gonzalez. With those players either being non-tendered a contract or having their club options declined, the payroll lowers to $102,145,000. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the White Sox have an opening-day payroll high-water mark at $127,789,000, which was accrued in 2011. A Springer contract would likely put them over that mark, in addition to the likely smaller-scale signings/acquisitions to round out the roster. The White Sox have no other glaring needs besides DH and maybe another bullpen piece. I see a DH signing essentially a one-year deal to serve as a stopgap for Andrew Vaughan. Springer could be the piece to get this team to be world series contenders immediately.

Cleveland Indians: Yeah, yeah I already know you are thinking that the Indians can't afford Springer, hence the reason why I wrote an article suggesting the Indians NEED to trade Francisco Lindor because they will not be able to sign him long-term. But hear me out, the Indians could make this work IF they decline Carlos Santana's option for 2021, trade Lindor for pre-arb/arb eligible pieces and/or prospects, and trade Carlos Carrasco. If they do that, they lower their 2021 payroll to $48,030,000, but they will need to re-sign or replace Santana, sign a second basemen, acquire/sign a replacement shortstop and fill-in a rotation spot. With some creativity, all those holes can be replaced with cheaper, but still productive options that will allow the Indians to continue competing for AL Central titles. Springer will provide the Indians with much needed offense, especially as a member of that outfield.

Atlanta Braves: In this signing, Springer would occupy left field creating an athletic outfield of Springer-Pache-Acuna Jr for 2021. Adam Duvall would either occupy the DH spot, or be non-tendered as Matt Swartz predicts his arbitration salary to be $7,100,000 for 2021, which seems a little high for me considering Duvall's profile and recent output. I have the current Braves 2021 payroll at $106,524,375, so a Springer signing would essentially be replacing Marcell Ozuna since I don't believe the Braves can afford them both, especially with the Braves youth core seeing their salaries increase year-to-year. I think the key issue here is the fact that Springer would essentially block top prospect Drew Waters. I will say that I am officially scared off by Waters' high strikeout rate. In 573 plate appearance in 2019, Waters struck out 164 times while only walking 39 times. I can't list many consistently successful major leaguers that had that drastic a walk-strikeout rate in the minors off the top of my head, and if you can, I'm all ears. So, I believe the Braves should trade Waters while his value is still really high, as he is currently listed as the #22 prospect in all of baseball, and replace his presence with 4+ years of George Springer.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals had a subpar offensive season in 2020. Aside from Paul Goldschmidt, no one really stood out, or even above league average wRC+ for that matter. The Cards' production in the outfield was headed by Harrison Bader with a 114 wRC+, who I view ideally as a glove-first fourth outfielder on a playoff contending team. Besides Bader, Dexter Fowler and his replacement-level production will enter the last year of an overall disappointing 5-year $82.5M contract. Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson need to step up their production to at least above-league-average. Payroll-wise, I have the Cardinals at $141,396,666 for 2021, but afterwards, the Cards will have Andrew Miller, Matt Carpenter, Dustin Fowler, and possibly Carlos Martinez come off the books, a group that costs a total of $58,500,000 in 2021. So, a Springer contract can work financially, also giving the Cardinals some more financial flexibility to fill other holes on the team, which appears to be at catcher, where I assume they'll resign Yadier Molina, and at second base, where I believe they will sign Kolten Wong to a few more years. The pitching looks pretty good at the moment so they won't need to allocate a ton of money in that direction. St. Louis is one of the best baseball cities in America and I'm a curious if they will fully accept Springer given his involvement in the cheating scandal.

Time to Trade Francisco Lindor

This is the offseason that the Cleveland Indians need to trade Francisco Lindor. Between the revenue losses sustained from coronavirus, the prospect of being a small-market team, and the need to create a deeper, more productive lineup, the Indians will be best suited by trading Lindor this offseason. Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors projects Lindor to make $21,500,000 in 2021, which is very similar to the situation the Red Sox found themselves in last offseason with Mookie Betts. Clearly, the Mookie Betts trade is the best model for a potential Lindor trade, where the Red Sox acquired Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, and Connor Wong in exchange for one year Betts.

Yes, Lindor did not have a typical Lindor-like offensive season in 2020 only posting a 100 wRC+, which is exactly league average. However, there is something to be said about Lindor's defense, presence, and swagger that can't be ignored when pondering the return.

The Indians are pitching heavy heading into 2021 with a top-tier rotation of Bieber, Carrasco, Plesac, McKenzie, and Civale and a stacked bullpen boasting Hand (if club option is exercised), Karinchak, Clase, Maton, and Wittgren. So, we know that the Indians will be one of the best run preventers in the league next year and the question becomes whether or not they can score enough to rack up the wins needed to compete at the top of the AL Central. The greatest point of attention was the struggling outfield bats. Mercado will likely need to more refining in Columbus in 2021 and NOT ONE outfielder between Naylor, DeShields, Naquin, Zimmer, and Luplow had a wRC+ over 83. Yes, 83. They also now have two glove-first catchers in Perez and Hedges, and a hole at second base (likely to be filled by re-signing Cesar Hernandez). Santana is getting up there in age and the overall production is going to fall. So what do we have left? A Franimal at DH and another beast in Ramirez that is likely to stick at third according to executive Chris Antonetti. Nolan Jones is not too far away, but will most likely be moved to first or and outfield corner (first seems like the best fit in my opinion).

Using the MLB Radar, the cleanest trade partners at this moment are the Dodgers, Reds, and Angels. Let's begin.

Dodgers Acquire: Francisco Lindor

Indians Acquire: Keiburt Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Zach Reks

First, Indians acquire a catcher with hitting upside and the Dodgers #2 Prospect according to MLB.com and Fangraphs. This will create a more well-rounded catching tandem for the Indians and will allow them to trade one of Perez or Hedges. Second, the Indians get the Dodgers #1 prospect according to MLB.com and Fangraphs. Parting with Gray might sting some Dodgers fans, but he will most likely be blocked when he is ready by late 2021/early 2022. The Indians could flip Gray for another promising bat, or they could finish up his development, and trade the more costly Carrasco for a bat, allowing the Indians to free up more payroll space. Lastly, Reks is a bat that I've had my eye on for a while now. He is a 10th rounder out of Kentucky who has a career minor league OPS of 0.852, while popping 28 homeruns in 2019. He doesn't have a clear defensive home, but has played mostly left field and a little first base in the minors.

Reds Acquire: Francisco Lindor

Indians Acquire: Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India, Mac Sceroler

Like the Dodgers trade proposal, the Indians acquire another highly touted catching prospect in Stephenson will more offensive upside than any other catcher in the Indians organization. India is the intriguing inclusion here. He is blocked all around the Reds infield, unless he is able to play a sufficient shortstop, where I think he fits better at third or second. The time for the Reds is now or never in my eyes. The farm system is subpar. Votto is aging out and his expensive contract will soon become a burden on the Reds as his production decreases, essentially handcuffing the Reds in their payroll flexibility. India can slide in at second base in 2022 if he is ready. Sceroler is a 5th rounder out of Southeastern Louisiana with some decent numbers in the minors that can benefit from the Indians pitching development staff. The Reds offense underperformed in 2020, but Lindor's presence in the lineup could give the boosts needed for guys like Votto, Suarez, Moustakas, and Castellanos.

Angels Acquire: Francisco Lindor

Indians Acquire: Jo Adell, Matt Thaiss, Luis Rengifo

I look at this trade sometimes and think it's too much, and other times, I look at it and it is not as intriguing as the previous two trade proposals. Perhaps that is because of Jo Adell's rookie struggles at the plate (and in the field), but the guy is a top-tier prospect and there is still plenty of optimism for Adell. Thaiss and Rengifo profile more as role players, but they both have some pedigree and track record of solid output in the minors, so I think they are fine pieces to include. Angel fans dream of a Trout-Adell ran outfield, but I think the Angels can look to Brandon Marsh as that guy instead of Adell. Pujols' contract is up after 2021 and Upton's after 2022, so there is a lot of money coming off the books that could be used for an outfielder to pair with Marsh and Trout, and sign or acquire much-needed frontline starting pitching. A lineup hitting Lindor in front of Trout and Rendon is fun to think about and the Angels need to stop wasting one of the best talents of this generation and give our guy Trout a real playoff contending team.