Radar Riffing

2022 MLB Mock Draft

1st ever Pro Baseball Radar mock draft. The methodology will be more based on organizational tendencies based on recent drafts and winning window/positional fits using the MLB Radar. I understand that most teams don't actually with this mindset, but the draft is too much of a crapshoot in terms of predicting specific players, so I will not be employing a 'best player available'-strategy at each pick. No long explanation necessary, let's get into it!

1.1 Baltimore Orioles - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly

The Orioles have went with underslot college bats in 7 of 10 first round picks since 2015. Brooks Lee offers the O's the more positional versatility than a Kevin Parada or Jacob Berry. Obviously, the question at this point is if Druw Jones is so talented, they'll deviate from their most recent draft strategies. I say no. Lee also offers most immediate trade value if the Orioles decide to sign one of the big free agents shortstops this offseason. They'd be trading from an area of surplus in this scenario. Without digressing into hypotheticals, having another pick in the comp round and the first overall pick in subsequent rounds has me believing they'll once again go college bat with an underslot signing bonus.

1.2 Arizona Diamondbacks - Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan (GA)

Lawlar, Carroll, Jones. The new D-Backs big 3. Jones won't make it past the number 2 pick. I think there's a little more strikeout risk than people want to think here, which another reason why the Orioles will go with the safe, high floor, college bat. The D-Back shouldn't have an OF need with Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Dominic Fletcher, Dominic Canzone, and more. So there's zero need to rush Jones or be ultra-aggressive with promotions. No-pressure development, and when he's ready, there'll make room for him.

1.3 Texas Rangers - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech

I don't have a clue where the Rangers go here- in terms of the remaining big 3 HS bats or a college bat. I've seen almost exclusively Jackson Holliday, Elijah Green, or Cam Collier in this spot. So, I'll offer something different based on organizational need and winning window: a catcher. Sam Huff may end up as a 1B/DH type. I don't fully trust Jonah Heim to remain consistently good year over year. In the minors, there isn't a single offensively potent catcher. The Rangers winning window is just beginning and Parada will be there quicker than any of the high school guys. The 'draft-the-best-overall-talent' caucus will hate this, but what fun is it if every mock draft had the same players, and same logic?

1.4 Pittsburgh Pirates - Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (OK)

Jacob Berry is the best fit timeline and positional need-wise. But his positional versatility is limited and Jackson Holliday's upside is too high. Since 2015, the Pirates were unable to sign first round picks Nick Lodolo (2016) and Gunnar Hoglund (2018). So, having to go overslot with one of the top high school bats is something they haven't done a ton of in recent years, which is why part of me thinks that a college bat is a possibility, however, the talent and upside disparity to too great IF Brooks Lee is taken in the first 3 picks. If Lee is still available, then I'd feel a lot stronger about them drafting him.

1.5 Washington Nationals - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL)

The Nationals can afford to assume the risk that comes with Green, relative to drafting 5th overall. The farm system is in shambles, especially on the offensive side of things. The major league team is real bad. Pairing Green with Brady House is a good starting point to rebuild a farm system around. They NEED to do well with returns during the trade deadline and offseason to have a shot of competing in the next 5 or so years. They've only had seven 1st round picks since 2015 and about half of them are looking like total busts. No picks in the top 10.

1.6 Miami Marlins - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola

The firing of Gary Denbo should help this team because, my goodness, they are completely incapable of drafting and developing bats, both HS and college. Looking at their current MLB offense, every player has been acquired through trade, or signed as an FA, except for Nick Fortes. Cam Collier is the perfect combination of advanced, having attended a JUCO, but youth and upside that the Marlins need in their system. The Marlins don't really have any areas of surplus in their hitting ranks, so if Collier gets selected before the 6 spot, Termarr or Berry are strong possibilities here.

1.7 Chicago Cubs - Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays (GA)

Their last 6 of 7 first rounders were actually college players. But their return in trades were mostly young low-level bats (PCA, Canario, Alcantara, Caissie, etc). An advanced high-floor bat like Johnson's should fit perfectly into this new young core that's coming together. It's pretty crazy to think that Johnson would fall this far. In watching the combine, Johnson's body does seem maxed out. I also don't think it'll work out it'll work out at shortstop for him.

1.8 Minnesota Twins - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech

8 of their 10 first round picks since 2015 have been hitters. It might be too soon for any arms, especially with a handful of top-tier college bats that should be available here. The Twins don't have any dire areas of need position-wise. They've done well developing hitters and pitchers, both college and HS in recent years, as evidenced by their mostly homegrown roster at the major league level. Jace Jung is another college producer to throw in there.

1.9 Kansas City Royals - Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (MI)

The Royals had that great draft in 2018 where they signed 4 collegiate arms (Singer, Bubic, Lynch, Kowar). And now, neither has shown ace upside. Same goes with Asa Lacy. Will this scare them away from drafting another arm this time around? Nah. They'll go with HS pitchers in back-to-back years and grab Brock Porter. Porter fits the Royals need for more starting pitching, and he'd be a nice addition to the Ben Hernandez-Frank Mozzicato-Ben Kudrna-Shane Panzini contingent down in Single-A.

1.10 Colorado Rockies - Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman

I hope the Rockies never draft a high school pitcher ever again. Mike Nikorak, Riley Pint...ruined. The area the Rockies succeed with is developing bats and that's where they'll go again in 2022. There'll be a big 3 HS outfielders in the system: Benny Montgomery, Zac Veen, Justin Crawford. Crawford's speed will play well in covering a spacious Colorado outfield. A surplus in the hitting ranks allows them the capital to acquire the pitchers they'll need to compete via trade.

1.11 New York Mets - Jacob Berry, 1B, LSU

The Mets will do something here that they haven't done since 2014, they'll draft a college bat. The weakest part of their system currently is potent bats at the lower & mid-levels. Alvarez, Baty and Vientos have made their way to the upper levels now and the goal for this organization is to create a farm system similar to that of the Dodgers, so they'll need to make it more well-rounded. Historically, they've done extraordinarily well with developing pitching, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them nab Porter or Lesko here...but I'm confident they'll do well with the college arms they'll draft in the middle rounds.

1.12 Detroit Tigers - Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama

Hometown selection. Other than Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, the Tigers have struggled to develop bats, so they'll add to their surplus of pitchers and draft Prielipp, and pair him with Ty Madden. They'll have to sign and acquire bats to fill out the offense, and dealing from their pitching depths may be a necessity. The Tigers love their SEC pitchers.

1.13 Los Angeles Angels - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

It should be a crime that the Angels were unable to develop any hitters to complement Mike Trout. They have to fill their holes via free agency, but year after years, it there are too many holes to fill. Then they don't have a strong enough farm system to acquire contributors via trade. Last year, they drafted 19 (out of 20) college arms and several have already reached the upper levels. So they'll continue to build their farm system by hoarding college pitching, drafting Hjerpe in this spot.

1.14 New York Mets - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell

Neto is somewhat of a sleeper. I know, how can a first rounder be a sleeper? If Neto went to a power 5 school, he'd be a top 10 pick. He went to Campbell, an Big South school. If you don't follow college baseball, you should know Campbell is a program that has a tough schedule and are often regional contenders. Back to Neto, he has dominated at the Cape, a big point of reference for draft risers. He can throw low-90s off the mound and has the athleticism and instincts to stick at short. Again, the Mets need to add offense to their lower and mid levels. Drafting Jacob Berry and Zach Neto will do just that.

1.15 San Diego Padres - Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford (GA)

If Lesko makes it past both Mets picks, the Padres will snatch him up. Eight of their last eight first round picks were all high schoolers, and they've have tremendous success with these picks (Gore, Abrams, Weathers, Hassell, Edwards). They've managed to get underslot deals for their last 4 picks and that may prove to be difficult to replicate for Lesko at this spot. Preller and company isn't afraid of taking risks, they'll bet on the upside and keep him away from stepping on Vanderbilt's campus.

1.16 Cleveland Guardians - Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny (PA)

High school bats and college arms, that's Cleveland's M.O. They have one of the highest percentages of high schoolers amongst their hitting ranks. They went with mostly college pitchers last year, and I'm not convinced the college pitchers available at this spot will sway the Guards away from going with a Cole Young or a Jett Williams, or MAYBE a Tucker Toman. Personally, I don't claim to know high school prospects as well as college guys, so I just stick to the organizational tendencies with this mock selection.

1.17 Philadelphia Phillies - Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage (FL)

This organization has really struggled to get their first round picks in recent years over the finish line. They've got several to the bigs, but none really have had sustained success. They may be going in a different direction by drafting Mick Abel and Andrew Painter in the last two drafts. Good things come in three's so let's have them adding a left-handed compliment to those two with Brandon Barriera.

1.18 Cincinnati Reds - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech

The Reds mix it up with college and high school selections. However, 9 of their last 11 first round selections were hitters. They've done a fine job of building out their pitching ranks via trade and drafting above average college arms in the early-middle rounds. Several mocks have Cross going higher, but I definitely could see him falling into this range.

1.19 Oakland Athletics - Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson

The A's don't typically mess around with high school guys in recent drafts. The first round is little different. They burned themselves with Austin Beck. TBD with Soderstrom and Muncy. The A's love their Power-5 guys. I think they go big-time underslot and shock the world dipping back into the Clemson pot (as they did with Logan Davidson in 2019 and reach out for Max Wagner, who had an insane breakout sophomore year.

1.20 Atlanta Braves - Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State

Pitching University. In 4 first round picks in 2015-16, they drafted all high school pitchers, all of which were successful picks. They went with back-to-back Wake Forest pitchers in the last two drafts. If Rhett Lowder was draft-eligible, just slap a Braves hat on him already, but he isn't so we'll go with who I think is one of the better college arms available in this range- Justin Campbell.

1.21 Seattle Mariners - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison

DeLauter was putting up gaudy numbers during the spring campaign before suffering a season-ending injury. If you normalize his numbers to the same number of PA that most of the top draft prospects collected this spring, DeLauter would far and away be the best-producing college bat, factoring in the lack of SEC-level/ACC-level pitching. But the injury, combined with the fact that he attends JMU will damage his draft stock, but could end up being a huge come-up for the M's.

1.22 St. Louis Cardinals - Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath (TX)

Mentioning this pattern is grasping at straws, but so is predictable picks in a mock draft, so here it is. In their first round picks since 2016: college arm (Hudson) > HS bat (Perez) > college arm (Roberts) > HS bat (Gorman) > college arm (Thompson) > HS bat (Walker) > college arm (McGreevy) > HS bat (_______). Enter Jett Williams. Other than this, I got nothing else for ya.

1.23 Toronto Blue Jays - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee

Drew Gilbert's vibe is Joe Bautista ALCS bat flip energy...hopefully in ways that aren't detrimental to the team's chemistry. In recent drafts, 7 of their last 8 first rounders have been college guys, I think they'll go back there again. Jordan Beck is criminally overrated and Gilbert should be the first Vol off the board.

1.24 Boston Red Sox - Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond (SC)

Toman is looking like a helium guy as the draft quickly approaches. He may very well get drafted before the 24 spot, but if not, I think this is where Chaim goes. The Sox rolled with three HS bats in their last 3 first rounders (Casas, Yorke, Mayer). None signed overslot deals. Don't think Toman would if selected here either. The Rays historically tend to select high upside bats, so I'm assuming Chaim is carrying over that philosophy.

1.25 New York Yankees - Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee

Yankees loooveeee exit velo. They don't seem to be overly concerned with high K% rates or strike zone control looking at the numbers of their minor leaguers. Jordan Beck is a big name, has the F.U. energy that could make the Yankees villains again- the way it's supposed to be. Beck also isn't a beard guy so it's easier to see him rocking the pinstripes.

1.26 Chicago White Sox - Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen

The trend says college pick since 7 of their last 8 first rounders were college guys, but last year, the South Siders mixed it up and drafted Colson Montgomery. The team has a fairly weak system and most of their core at the major league level is under contract for multiple years, which now may allow them to draft and develop younger guys without additional pressure. I'd wanna say home state Noah Schultz here, but the commitment to Vanderbilt is strong apparently, and going overslot is something the White Sox haven't done in recent years with first rounders.

1.27 Milwaukee Brewers - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

The Brew Crew has drafted hitters in 8 of their last 10 first round picks. 7 of 10 were college guys. Their HS picks were good, not great (Grisham, Turang, Lutz). So I think if Susac falls this far, which is possible because the bat is riskier than other top-tier college bats. Catcher is an organizational weakness for them. Caratini and Narvaez is one of the best offensive catching tandems in the bigs, and Jeferson Quero is a good looking prospect, but they can use an advanced college catcher in their ranks.

1.28 Houston Astros - Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy

The Astros recent college selection at the back of the 1st round have been so-so (Beer, Bukauskus, K. Lee). I think if there's one of the high-upside high school pitchers available here, they'll go in that direction. They usually do extremely well with developing solid pitching performers internationally and early/mid-round college arms, but their pitching ranks is weaker now than it's been in recent years. Ferris will address that weakness.

1.29 Tampa Bay Rays - Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell

Pretty much, the Rays get multiple first round picks every year, this is not one of those years. So, they'll have to get their guy because he may not be available at 2.65. I've been predicted for while, after watching plenty of Campbell baseball this spring, that Harrington will sneak into the first round, and who better than the Rays who love these types of pitchers, and have drafting Seth Johnson a couple of years ago out of Campbell.

1.30 San Francisco Giants - Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt

Speaking of giants...Jones gets the Aaron Judge comps, the SF Giants are viewed as frontrunners to sign Aaron Judge if he doesn't re-sign with the Yankees. It all falls into place. Jones has big EVs, fits an analytically advanced Giants org. The prospect OF'ers in their system have fallen off- Heliot, Bishop, Matos. Jones just fits well all-around.

First round is over. I'll be a little shorter with the explanation going forward.

1.31 Colorado Rockies - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga

Something about the guy being born in Alaska and going to a high school in Idaho called Rocky Mountain feels right with the Rockies. The Rockies love their college pitching picks in the 2nd round. I get this is still the comp round, but it's their 3rd pick.

1.32 Cincinnati Reds - Blade Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee

Reds comp picks/second round picks have been all over the place, no discernable patterns. Crapshoot-y pick here, but they'll mix it up between bats and arms. Blade Tidwell, big stuff guy, welcome to Spincinnati.

1.33 Baltimore Orioles - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City ValleyCats

Why not? Kumar should move through the minors quickly if healthy and join Grayson Rodriguez to form 1-2 power-pitching punch. Kumar may very well go higher, so projecting another college bat here if there isn't an advanced arm they like enough.

1.34 Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew Thorpe, SP, Cal Poly

The D-backs have struggled to convert on any of their recent college pitching selections, but they have an impressive young offensive core coming together and they need to find talented pitchers. Like a college arm here, love Thorpe for them.

1.34 Atlanta Braves - Landon Sims, RHP, Mississippi State

Again, pitching university. They aren't scared of reliever-risk in the early rounds. They've shown by drafting A.J. Minter and Spencer Schwellenbach early, and Kimbrel back in the day. And making a solid start (so far) out of Spencer Strider.

1.36 Pittsburgh Pirates - Henry Bolte, OF, Palo Alto (HS)

In selections out side the top 10 picks, the Pirates love high school picks in the first 2 rounds. 15/20 HS picks since 2015 in with that contingency. More talented HS bats to add to the Bubba Chandler, Lonnie White, Anthony Solometo youth core.

1.37 Cleveland Guardians - Parker Messick, LHP, Florida State

They'll get their HS SS with the 16th pick, now they get their college arm. Messick was one of the best arms in the college baseball last year. Into the pitching development machine he goes.

1.38 Colorado Rockies - Cayden Wallace, 3B, Arkansas

Rockies are gonna get their college bats. Wallace is a draft-eligible sophomore and 2-year starter for one of the best college baseball teams in the nation in those two years. Time to mash in Colorado.

1.39 San Diego Padres - Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville

Catching is an organizational need at this point. The Padres rarely go college bat in the first 2 rounds since '15. Only 3 of 21 have been college bats, and one of them a catcher in Logan Driscoll. There's risk he doesn't stick here, but bat has more upside then Logan Tanner.

2.40 Los Angeles Dodgers - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma

I'm not buying the Horton helium. It was a good not outstanding regular season and great stretch in the playoff run. I think he'll fall to this range where his best fit is with L.A. They're extremely good at developing college pitching.

2.41 Boston Red Sox - Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida

Kind of an F.U. to Jud Fabian, but I think if Thompson falls down this far, the Red Sox won't let him get away. I think they're getting a more well-rounded player than Fabian here. History of drafting Florida guys- Fabian, Hickey, Dalton, Poyner, Tobias

2.42 Baltimore Orioles - Brock Jones, OF, Stanford

Baltimore loves their Stanford bats- Maverick Handley, Kyle Stowers, Andrew Daschbach. Jones has strikeout concerns so I think he'll fall to this point or beyond. Tons of talent in their and will become one of a zillion college OFers in the O's system.

2.43 Arizona Diamondbacks - Jake Bennett, LHP, Oklahoma

D-Backs need pitching, so they'll drafting advanced college arms hoping they can perform better than the ones they have aboard. Based on the year Bennett had, this would be a low spot for him, but the hitting class is so talented, good pitchers will get pushed down to this range.

2.44 Pittsburgh Pirates - Dylan Beavers, OF, California

The Pirates rarely go college in this spot, but I reckon they'll switch it up if a bat like Beavers is here. Their HS bats (drafted and acquired) are all kinda average- Siani, Head, Scott, Mitchell, etc. They've drafted a few Berkeley players in recent years- Shortridge, Sean Sullivan, Jonah Davis.

2.45 Washington Nationals - Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas

The Nats do a decent job of developing college pitching, so they'll lean into their strength with this one and grab an SEC arm that will fall due to injury. Nats are far away from competing so no rush or urgency with recovery. Could see Barco here as well.

2.46 Miami Marlins - Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina

Word on the street is that the Marlins are targeting less risky college bats. The athlete/tools-first approach has failed them miserably in drafts and trade returns. Eric Brown should fit the bill if he falls to this point. Team could use a reliable SS in their system.

2.47 Chicago Cubs - Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East (IL)

What's gonna persuade Schultz to forego his commitment to Vanderbilt? Being drafted by his hometown Cubs and join thee very talented, high-upside, young core the Cubs have at the mid/lower levels.

2.48 Minnesota Twins - Reggie Crawford, LHP, UConn

Crawford entered the transfer portal and recently committed to Tennessee, but he won't make it to Rocky Top. Twins love their UConn guys (Fedko, Prato, Winkel) and Big East arms (lot's of St. John's guys over the years).

2.49 Kansas City Royals - Jacob Melton, OF, Oregon State

Outfield will be an area of need with the next Royals core based around Bobby Witt. Melton was impressive during the regional & super regional as the best hitter on a strong Oregon State team. Could advance quickly and join Tyler Gentry in the upper levels soon.

2.50 Colorado Rockies - Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma

Graham had a massive year, but there are legitimate approach concerns. This type of plate discipline tends to worsen from the college to pro transition. However, these types do well in the Rockies MiLB hitting environments. Too much upside to pass on and risk is mitigated since the Rockies have one of the better hitting systems around, especially at the mid-levels.

2.51 Detroit Tigers - Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia

More SEC pitchers? Darn tooten. The Tigers need the pitching surplus as discussed in the Prielipp pick above. Cannon's K-rates are of concern to me, but historically it doesn't bother the Tigers as much as other teams.

2.52 New York Mets - Walter Ford, RHP, Pace (FL)

You can't tell me the Mets have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds and not draft a higher-upside HS pitcher. They could wait until this range to see who falls due to sign-ability concerns, then come in and throw enough at them. Mets have signed quite a few FL prep guys in recent years (who hasn't) so they may go back there with Ford.

2.53 Ivan Melendez - Ivan Melendez, 1B, Texas

Back-to-back Golden Spikes Award winners drafted by the Padres. Kopps last year, Melendez this year. If they draft multiple prep guys in the previous picks, in particular Dylan Lesko, Melendez would be a nice money saving pick who could also move through the system quickly and become Hosmer's successor.

2.54 Cleveland Guardians - Carson Weisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina

I think teams will be a little hesitant to draft Weisenhunt after the season-long steroid suspension and the bad Cape Cod league showing this summer. The Guards likely saw him plenty in their scouting of Gavin Williams last year, and saw everything they needed to see.

2.55 Cincinncati Reds - Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Crowder

This pick is more of a guess than any other thus far. Misiorowski impressed during the combine. He's a 6'7" unit throwing 100, very similar to Jackson Rutledge, I don't think he'll actually fall this far, but in this mock he has, so the Reds snatch him up.

2.56 Oakland Athletics - Bryce Hubbart, LHP, Florida State

The A's have selected only college players in the 2nd round since 2015. They love their power-5 arms, so here's a good one for 'em, Bryce Hubbart. They have the 5th most ACC players amongst their ranks, lot's of scouts at conference games I'm sure.

2.57 Atlanta Braves - Logan Tanner, C, Mississippi State

System needs a Shea Langeliers replacement. This is a good spot for Tanner to come off the board. Oddly, the Braves rank in the bottom 5 in organizations with SEC alumni, despite the conference being in their scouting stomping grounds.

2.58 Seattle Mariners - Brycen Mautz, LHP, San Diego

If the Mariners weren't so successful with college arms in this range, I'd be inclined to have them pick hometown guy J.R. Ritchie. But alas, another college arm, on the younger side for a 3rd year guy, with a huge junior season.

2.59 St. Louis Cardinals - Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union (OH)

This organization is completely unafraid of afraid of drafting prep guys in this range. Fringe first rounders tend to fall (in comparison to prospect rankings). If Miller falls this far, the Cards will pair him up with Tink Hence.

2.60 Toronto Blue Jays - Malcolm Moore, C, McClatchy (CA)

Other than Bo Bichette, Jays' 2nd round picks have been subpar to this point. This year, this is the first of 3 so they may take the risk on the young prep catcher (a scary profile). Moore is helium guy going into the draft.

2.61 New York Yankees - Tanner Schobel, SS, Virginia Tech

The Yankees always have good shortstops at every level. It's a position they historically chase no matter the origin. Schobel enjoyed a fantastic season in a potent VT lineup.

2.62 Chicago White Sox - Tristan Smith, LHP, Boiling Springs (SC)

They went with prep picks the last 3 years in the 2nd round- Wes Kath, Jared Kelley, Matthew Thompson. In this mock, we have the South Siders going with back-to-back prep pitchers. Their window could be closing sooner than most think. Time to start building the next core.

2.63 Milwaukee Brewers - Tyler Locklear, 1B, VCU

Locklear has a similar hitting profile to Tyler Black, with bigger EVs. Got to watch a few Locklear ABs in person. He launched a ball into outer space Sandlot style, just disappeared into the night. Locklear is a personal favorite of mine and fits what the Brewers look for.

2.64 Houston Astros - Clark Elliott, OF, Michigan

The Astros do a bunch of scouting and drafting from the Big Ten. They drafted Jordan Brewer and Carmen Benedetti out o Michigan. Multiple guys out of Maryland and Nebraska. Clark Elliott might have the most upside out of any B1G players they've drafted recently.

2.65 Tampa Bay Rays - Ian (JR) Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge (WA)

Running it back to Blake Snell vibes, taking a Washington State prep arm. No better place for prep arms to end up. Rays take a bunch of prep players rounds before the 5th.

2.66 San Francisco Giants - Jaden Noot, RHP, Sierra Canyon (CA)

Something atypical for the Giants in this range is to draft a prep arm. Noot came across my FYP on TikTok late last year. It's a ridiculously easy 95 mph. It came from the SoCal Giants account so that's my reasoning for the SF Giants drafting him.

2.67 Baltimore Orioles - Carson Palmquist, LHP, UMiami

The Orioles haven't done great with drafting successful pitchers after the 1st round in recent years, but Palmquist is one you can feel good about performing well during each of his 3 years in the ACC.

2.68 Minnesota Twins - Ryan Cermak, OF, Illinois State

After picking prep players in the 2nd round, they've completely pivoted towards college selections in this range. The Twins are drawn to this college power profile- Wallner, Rooker, CES, Sabato. Cermak fills an area of need too, the org is more infielder-heavy at the lower/mid-levels.

2.69 Oakland Athletics - Nate Savino, LHP, Virginia

The A's haven't picked a prep guy in the 2nd round from 2015-21, so they won't here. They probably saw plenty of Savino in their Gelof scouting. High WHIPs are a little frightening, but they'll work to decrease that.

2.70 Tampa Bay Rays - Connor Staine, RHP, UCF

Staine didn't pitch a ton of innings this season for UCF, but they were dominant innings. When qualified, he was the ERA leader for DI most of the 1st half of the season. High octane stuff, nasty slider- two pitches the Rays would love to build on.

2.71 Tampa Bay Rays - Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran (CA)

These LSU commits scare me in terms of signability. Jay Johnson gets what he wants. The Rays have done a decent job of swaying good prep talent in the 2nd & 3rd rounds. Lots of early picks, lots of money available. They can get it done.

2.72 Milwaukee Brewers - Colby Thomas, OF, Mercer

Thomas is another guy that fits what they look for in college bats- good control of the strike zone. Thomas would probably go higher, and still may, if the college and HS hitting class wasn't so dang deep.

2.73 Cincinnati Reds - Sal Stewart, 3B, Westminster Christian (FL)

Reds love their early rounds FL prep players as much as anyone- Jay Allen, Tyler Callihan, Lyon Richardson, Jackson Miller. Stewart is next. Vanderbilt commit being that there's a lot of turnover there, and Stewart may be able to play from Day 1.

2.74 Seattle Mariners - Trystan Vrieling, RHP, Gonzaga

You can't tell me Gonzaga is gonna have possibly the best draft-eligible rotation ever and the M's aren't gonna draft one. TBD on whether it's Hughes, Vrieling, or Kempner, but at least of of them is being drafted by the M's.

2.75 New York Mets - Ben Joyce, RHP, Tennessee

A potentially MLB-ready bullpen arm? Just what the Mets need. Most of their bullpen is hitting the FA market after 2022 and there are tons of spots open and despite having Cohen, it'd be best if several of the new bullpen guys were pre-arb/low arb so the Mets don't let deGrom and/or Nimmo walk.

2.76 Atlanta Braves - Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa

Transferring to Iowa was a life-changing decision for Mazur that'll pay off in so many ways. Primarily, Mazur is gonna be rich. An organization with strong pitching development will be vital for Mazur's continued success. Enter the Braves.

2.77 Toronto Blue Jays - Troy Melton, RHP, San Diego State

Not even 22 yet and has had 4 years of DI experience, having his best year '22. Another advanced college pitcher to add to the Tiedemann/Zulueta/Frasso contingent.

2.78 Toronto Blue Jays - Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida

Drafting injured pitchers doesn't bother the Jays. They were able to potentially buy lower on Gunnar Hoglund, and the same will be true for Hunter Barco.

2.79 Boston Red Sox - Roman Anthony, OF, Stoneman Douglas (FL)

I feel as if these types of prep bats fall a bit due to approach concerns. I don't know how many people would call Anthony going 79th overall 'falling,' but more so in reference to rankings. The Sox are doing great with Blaze Jordan, who had approach concerns.

2.80 Houston Astros - Josh Kasevich, SS, Oregon

Astros need a high-floor SS in their system. After Pena, it's disappointing- De Goti, Kessinger, Whitcomb, Stevens, L. Santana. Kasevich seems more reliable due to the profile he exhibited in a power-5.

3.81 Baltimore Orioles - Cade Doughty, 3B, LSU

Reliable for LSU, unsure how well the approach will translate over to the pros, but another college bat picked here to fit the glove of recent Orioles draft strategies. They haven't taken a HS guy in the 3rd round since Brian Gonzalez in 2014.

3.82 Arizona Diamondbacks - Max Martin, SS, Moorestown (NJ)

More of a guess than other picks. Other than a tendency for the D-Backs to sign prep guys in the 3rd round, don't have much on this one.

3.83 Pittsburgh Pirates - Trey Dombrowski, LHP, Monmouth

The lack of depth of college pitching arms in this class will boost performers like Dombrowski coming out of a school Monmouth. This won't scare the Pirates as they drafted a DIII guy in Nick Garcia in 2020 and a prep pitcher out of Vermont in Owen Kellington.

3.84 Washington Nationals - Jake Madden, RHP, Northwest FL State

Madden probably reminds a bunch of Nats staff and fans of Jackson Rutledge. Taller right-hander out of a JUCO with a big fastball. Maybe they get what they wanted in Rutledge with picking Madden here.

3.85 Miami Marlins - Andrew Walters, RHP, UMiami

Walters was the best reliever in college baseball this year (sorry Tyler Guilfoil). The Marlins pitching ranks are so deep, that they can afford to get a stud closer at this point in the draft. Marlins need that shutdown closer, Walters is a guy I can see being fast-tracked.

3.86 Chicago Cubs - Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Texas Tech

The Cubs aren't strangers to drafting pitchers from good baseball colleges in this range- Cory Abbott, Paul Richan, Michael McAvene, Keegan Thompson. Birdsell is a little older and could move quickly, and potentially join fellow Texas Tech alumni Caleb Kilian in the Cubs rotation in a couple of years.

3.87 Kansas City Royals - Brandon Sproat, RHP, Florida

Royals like their ACC & SEC pitchers. Part of me thinks Kowar and Singer may turn them off to Florida guys, but if Sproat is available at this range, I can see them drafting him.

3.88 Colorado Rockies - Max Rajcic, RHP, UCLA

More Rockies and college pitching in the early rounds. Rockies have the most UCLA players in their system out of any organization. Draft-eligible sophomore with a strong 2022 surely has whichever scout associated with UCLA/Pac-12 buzzing.

3.89 Los Angeles Angels - Luis Ramirez, RHP, Long Beach State

This point of the draft may see a run on college pitching if teams draft based on how they've drafted in the recent past. Angels are staying local with this college arm. Missed most of the season due to injury. Dirtbags are always great pro prospects.

3.90 New York Mets - Pete Hansen, LHP, Texas

Their 5th pick of the draft to this point. So far we have them drafting Jacob Berry, Zach Neto, Walter Ford, Ben Joyce. They could go anywhere with this pick, but I think they'll go grab a college arm with one of them. They could try to draft & sign a prep arm that's fallen due to signability concerns.

3.91 San Diego Padres - Nicholas Morabito, SS, Gonzaga (DC)

The Padres have drafted so many prep guys in this range in recent years. This northern VA crop is stacked this year. Morabito might be the most talented one of the bunch. Wonder if it's the same area scout associated with Jackson Merrill.

3.92 Cleveland Guardians - Cameron Smith, 3B, Palm Beach Central (FL)

Smith's profile is what the Guardians have been drafting out of HS in recent years. Athletic, well-rounded hitter, from a warm-weather state, especially Florida- Will Bartlett, Jake Fox, Yordys Valdes, Christian Cairo. Fits the mold.

3.93 Philadelphia Phillies - Ryan Clifford, 1B, Pro5 Academy

Clifford is meant to be a pro player. He's been on Team USA facing top-tier competition since he was 12 y/o. He attends a high school for elite baseball players, just for baseball, something you'd be more likely to see from a Puerto Rican prep players. Why the Phillies? He's gonna be a 1B with pop, that sounds like Ryan Howard.

3.94 Cincinnati Reds - Owen Murphy, 2W, Riverside-Brookfield (IL)

Slot a prep player here. A big part of me thought Murphy would end up at Notre Dame. But the coach left for Florida State, they were an old team, some are transferring. I'm bearish on the two-way ability, especially with the Reds.

3.95 Oakland Athletics - Josh White, RHP, California

The A's have an affinity for UC Berkeley guys- Mark Canha, Daulton Jefferies, Grant Holman, trading for Marcus Semien. Josh White fits the bill.

3.96 Atlanta Braves - Zach Maxwell, RHP, Georgia Tech

The Braves do a great job of retaining good players in their own backyard. We know the deal with prep products, but they've recently picked up Luke Waddell and Justyn-Henry Malloy. Maxwell is more of a project- he walks a ton of dudes- but the size and stuff will be fun for the Braves to play with.

3.97 St. Louis Cardinals - Alan Roden, 1B, Creighton

Steal of the draft in my humble opinion. Roden's BB-K ratio are insane- 29 walks to 8 strikeouts this spring at Creighton. He had a standout combine too, hitting the ball as hard and running as fast as the toolsy, big hype players.

3.98 Toronto Blue Jays - Jackson Cox, RHP, Toutle Lake (WA)

A north-based team drafting a north-based pitcher. I'd like to imagine given Vancouver's proximity to Seattle-area prospects, that they got good eyes on Ritchie and Cox.

3.99 Boston Red Sox - Quinn Matthews, RHP, Stanford

A college pitching pick that's more tendency based than anything.

3.100 New York Yankees - Luke Gold, 2B, Boston College

Liking the profile-fit. Gold is from upstate NY originally.

3.101 Chicago White Sox - Cade Hunter, C, Virginia Tech

The White Sox tend to go with college arms in this range. Mock drafting Hunter here based on organizational need.

3.102 Milwaukee Brewers - Chandler Simpson, C, Georgia Tech

A fun profile for the Brewers to play with. Simpson is said to have 90 speed on the 20-80 scale. More walks than strikeouts. Common theme for the Brew Crew.

3.103 Houston Astros - Matt Wood, C, Penn State

Heavy Big Ten draftees. Matt Wood was probably a top 3 contender for Big Ten Player of the Year. Astros could use a big bat & more advanced catcher in their mid-levels.

3.104 Tampa Bay Rays - Gabriel Rincones, OF, Florida Atlantic

Rincones had a monster year for FAU after playing at a JUCO. Originally from Tampa, attending Plant HS, popularized by the Tucker brothers and Pete Alonso. A little history with the Rays drafting Tyler Frank out of FAU in the 2nd round a few years back.

3.105 Los Angeles Dodgers - Cole Phillips, RHP, Boerne (TX)

Dodgers capitalizes potentially on yet another prep arm that's fallen back. I'm ya, teams that stick to safer college players, will do so, and top ranked prep players will fall. Honestly don't know who will and who won't, but it'll happen.

3.106 San Francisco Giants - Cutter Coffey, 3B, Liberty (CA)

This is the part of the draft where we'll see prep selections start to dwindle down. At this point of the mock, it's less about which prep player goes to which team, but rather the profile that fits each teams draft history and where they've had success. Coffey fits the bill.

Proposing a 120 Team March Madness-Style MiLB Mega Tournament

2020 has brought about massive changes to the game of baseball as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the first in history, the minor league baseball season was cancelled, hampering the growth and development of each team's young players. Late in the year, a massive reshuffling took place which reduced the total number of full season minor league teams from over 160 down to 120- where each organization has one team at each level: Triple-A, Double-A, A-Advanced, and Low-A. While this event is devastating to the small towns throughout the country that will no longer field a professional affiliated team, the change is an opportunity to inject excitement to the structure of the minor league postseason.

What I am proposing is a massive 120-team tournament where each of the 120 teams qualify, and is styled similarly to the NCAA March Madness Basketball Tournament. This will accomplish two goals: Number 1- to give national attention and media coverage of the minor leagues, putting every player on a national stage. Number 2- This seems like so much fun.

Breakdown

In any 120-team bracket, there are generally four sub-sections of 30 teams. I pondered the best way to divvy up the teams on whether the initial seeding should be based on region, organization, or level. In a single-game elimination tournament where presumably, the games are played in a minimal amount of time, travel becomes a concern if it is based on organization or level (more so for Double-A and Triple-A), unless of course, the tournament takes place at a neutral location. However, I think this style of tournament would be incredibly exciting for the local fans of these teams in small towns, where the opportunity for revenue and growth becomes a factor worth considering heavily.

Personally, I would like the four sub-sections to be divided by level, where a champion can be officially crowned to the best team at a given level, since it's a tall task from a speculative standpoint for a Low A team to beat a Triple A team. For each 'level' championship, I'd prefer a best-of-three scenario instead of the single-elimination to appropriately declare the level's best team, while maximizing the pressure and suspense of the tournament. Then, the champions from each of the four levels will play each other. Presumably the best Triple-A team would tend to beat the lower levels, so I think a semi-final of the Double-A winner vs. the Triple-A winner, and the A-Advanced winner vs. the Low-A winner is most fair. Then of course, the winners of these two best-of-three series play each other in the championship, where I think a best-of-five series fits. There might be concerns over the workload of these minor leaguers, where some organization may desire to limit a player's innings to prevent injury, but all-in-all these style of tournament sounds like more games than it actually is. Check it out:

Since 120 is not a perfect number for bracket style tournament, 8 teams, or 2 teams at each level will get a bye. This would presumably be based on regular record.

• Round 1: 112 teams, 56 games total, cumulative game total for winner: 1

• Round 2: 64 teams, 32 games total, cumulative game total for winner: 2

• Round 3: 32 teams, 16 games total, cumulative game total for winner: 3

• Round 4: 16 teams, 8 games total, cumulative game total for winner: 4

• Round 5: 8 teams, 4 games total, cumulative game total for winner: Max. 7

• Round 6: 4 teams, 2 games total, cumulative game total for winner: Max. 10

• Round 7: 2 teams, 1 game total, cumulative game total for winner: Max. 15

Maximum 15 games for the best two teams if series is played to the last game. That is not bad at all.

Now here is my primary concern with the proposal. The first would be surrounding the rules of eligibility for players qualifying for a certain team. The minor leagues is so diverse and unique that throughout the season players a constantly in motion, whether they are promoted/demoted, released/signed, suspended, injured, etc. There would have to be a standard set that prevents teams from stacking certain teams with their top minor leaguers. Whether that rule is based on percentage of games played at a given level, or a static number of plate appearances or innings pitched, a rule is necessary, however, it shouldn't be so strict that it becomes a consideration in an organization's individual player decisions. For example, if a player is worthy of promotion, the playoff roster rules shall not interfere with that.

MLB Expansion and Realignment Proposal

'Mets Departure Effect'

Don't mistake coincidence for fate. Yeah, I took this from Lost, but how many times will a player leave the Mets, then become a significantly more productive player? Maybe it's a perspective-based thing being in NY, but does this phenomenon occur with other teams to the degree it occurs with the Mets? I suppose the first thought that comes to mind is the Marlins, but the players they traded were either already really productive players or minor league prospects that have yet to debut in the majors. As a Mets fan myself, this feels like a yearly occurrence, and while I always wish the best for the players, deep down it just hurts. Does the Mets organization somehow stifle growth? Are the atmosphere and expectations together too stress-inducing? Does the front office just flat out stink? I'll let you be the judge. Here, I will rank the biggest contributors to what I've coined the 'Mets Departure Effect'.

Notes:

• Played for Mets at the major league level in at least 2 different seasons

• Graphics will show 2 seasons of Mets stats & 2 seasons of post-Mets stats

• Only includes players that played for Mets after 2010

• Objectively noticeable improvement in performance after departure

• Years in parentheses denote most productive years after departure

• Stats are specific to the years in parentheses

Radar RIffing Discussion